How will Group C Euro 2008 runner-up be decided

Group of death could become group of confusion

If three teams end up on two points (which is possible if Holland beats Romanian and Italy and France draw) working out the group runner-up could be tricky.

Table currently stands

Holland   6pts  +6 goal difference

Romania  2pts  +0

France     1pt    -3 

Italy         1pt    -3

If Holland beats Romania, the France vs Italy game becomes a do-or-die match.

If there’s a result between Fance and Italy, then whoever wins simply makes it through to the next round.

If Romania loses and Italy and France draw then we will have three teams on 2 points each.

This means that regulation 7.08 of the UEFA qualifying rules will not apply. 7.08 states that if the last match of the pool involves the two teams drawn on points then a penalty shoot-out will be used to determine who progresses to the quarter finals. Regulation 7.08 will not apply as three teams are equal on points.

This is where it gets messy.

UEFA sets the following precedence in determining the runner-up:

(a) number of points obtained by teams in contention

France v Romania – draw (1pt)

Romania v Italy – draw (1pt)

Italy v France – draw (1pt) 

(b) goal difference amongst teams in contention

As all three games involving Italy, France and Romania would have been draws this criteria can not apply.

(c) number of goals scored in games amongst teams in question

France v Romania – 0 goals

Romania v Italy – 1 goal

Italy v France – undecided

If it is a score draw then Italy will qualify, both France and Romania will suffer due to their goal-less draw.

If the Italy v France game ends 0-0, then this criteria can not apply as it does not give either Italy or Romania an advantage.

(d) goal difference in all group games

If Romania loses to Holland by fewer than three goals (Italy’s 3-0 and France’s 4-1 losing margin) then they will qualify with superior goal difference.

If Romania loses by four goals or more than they will be out of the reckoning.

If Romania also loses to Holland by three, then all three teams will have -3 goal difference and thus negate this criteria. 

(e) number of goals scored in all matches

Goals scored currently sits at:

France  1

Italy     1

Romania  1 

Depending on Tuesday night goals this criteria will be break the deadlock.

If Italy and France ends goal-less and Romania scores against Holland then Romania will be through.

If Romania score more goals against Holland than the draw score between Italy and France then the Tricolorii are through. For example if Romania loses 5-2 and the France v Italy game finishes 1-1 then Romania will qualify.

(f) co-efficient from qualifying competition (points obtained divided by games played)

Romania 29 pts 12 games

Italy 29 pts 12 games

France 26 pts 12 games

This criteria is not relevant as Romania and Italy share an equal co-effcient.

(g) fair play conduct of teams at the tournament

Dependent on yellow and red cards.

(h) lots

Dependent on chance.

 

The runner-up of group C will play the winner of group D (in all likelihood to be Spain).

 

 

Italy 1 Romania 1

The draw isn’t the result we wanted.

Basically we now need to beat France in the last game.

If Romania beats Holland in the last round of group-play, then Italy’s out.

 

Italy v Romania halftime 0-0

Italy unlucky not to be ahead 1-0 after Toni’s header into the goal is ruled out due to his being ruled offside.

Looked like a legitimate goal.

Shame no Romanian players were laying forlorn behind the goal line.

Italy showing improvement. Just need some luck for us to finally test the netting at this tournament.

More urgency and fluidity have been introduced by players like Perrota, Grosso, Chiellini and Del Piero.

We deserve to be at least one ahead. Not certain if our improvement is also due to the diminished quality of our opposition. 

Lets sub Camoranesi and bring on Aquilani or Cassano ASAP, we need someone who will get more return from their possessing the ball.

Only concern we have been bumped off the ball and lost control a number of time especially when our midfield have been attempting little tap passes in the centre of the pitch.

We look dangerous when we use the flanks.  

Italy v Romania – 4 hours to go

One other factor for today’s game is yellow cards.

Toni, Zambrotta and Gattuso all picked up cards against the Dutch.

A card today against the Romanians and they’ll be out for the match against the French.

Unlike in previous tournaments cards accumulated in group play will carry over to the quarter finals.

So earning a second yellow card against the French means the player will miss the quarter final game.

Given Toni and Zambrotta are virtually automatic selections, discipline will be an important consideration.

We’ll let Romania win if they take back the gypsies

Controversy from a different source

Today’s Italy v Romania game happens while the two countries are trying to settle differences around how Romany (gypsy) migrants to Italy should be handled.

It is estimated that around 500,000 Romi live in Italy.

Conflict situations have arisen with Romi being implicated with committing serious crimes. This includes an attempted kidnap of a 6 month old baby in Naples by a 16 year old Romi girl. 

Escalating crime rates amongst migrant populations, have seen Berlusconi’s new government introduce tough measures on clandestine (illegal) immigrants. Italy has threatened to expel Romi citizens.

This quote from right-wing politician Roberto Calderoli (the odd looking guy pictured above)

“Lasciamo vincere i romeni, purché si tengano i Rom”

We’ll let Romania win if they take back the gypsies.

Right wing Italian politicians have never really been known for their political correctness.

Italy vs Romania – 9 hours to go

Predictions

Italy 2 Romania 0

Holland 2 France 1

What’s the best outcome?

Italy to beat Romania by 2 goals or more.

Holland to beat France by at least one goal.

The table for Group C would then become

Holland  6 pts, +4 (goal difference)

Italy       3 pts,  -1

France   1 point, -1

Romania  1 point, -2

Why?

Therefore if Italy and Holland wins this means that a draw will be sufficient against the French. This takes some pressure out of the last game.

In Euro 96, the Azzurri faced a must win situation against the Germans in the last game of pool play. This was a consequence of their losing to the Czechs in the second round of group games.

The Italy-Germany game was a goal less draw. Germany had a player sent off and Zola missed a penalty.

At one point it looked like 0-0 was going to be enough for the Italians to make it through to the next round. Hopes ceased when Vlad Smicer scored an 88th minute goal for the Czechs, as they drew 3-3 against the Russians. 

Both Italy and the Czechs ended with four points, the Czechs progressed as they held the win over the Italians. 

 

Italy vs Romania – 10 hours to go

Donadoni quotes from this morning’s Italian papers

Giocano Del Piero, Chiellini e qualche altro. Tre o quattro cambi li faccio

Del Piero and Chiellini will play. I’ll make 3-4 changes.

Del Piero. “Il capitano è lui l’ho già detto nei giorni scorsi

Del Piero will be captain. I told you this the other day.

Ma oggi ho visto una squadra pimpante, vogliosa, tonica. Attenzione, questo non garantisce il risultato positivo

Today I saw a squad pumped and revitalised but this does not guarantee a positive result.

Hell for me, hell for you

Romania’s captain Christian Chivu claimed the Italians would find hell when playing Romania.

Zambrotta’s reponse “Sarà un inferno anche per loro. La partita non è difficile solo per noi. Non abbiamo alcuna intenzione di uscire dagli Europei”

It will be hell even for them. This game won’t be difficult just for us. We have no intention of exiting out of Europe.

 

Italian formation

This is the team everyone’s predicting.

Buffon, Zambrotta, Panucci, Chiellini, Grosso, De Rossi, Pirlo, Perrotta, Camoranesi, Toni, Del Piero.

Preferences

Reader’s polls on the La Stampa website show a preference for:

- Chiellini and Panucci as the central defence pairing (60% of votes)

- Del Piero and Cassano to partner with Toni as the Italian attack (70% of votes)

Italy vs Romania – 12 hours to go

Is Alex our fly solution?

All media accounts suggest Italian hopes will wrest with the selection of Del Piero.

No doubt Del Piero has been one of the top players in the Serie A for over a decade. But when it comes to playing for Italy he has never really fired. Beside that extra time goal against the Germans in the last Worl Cup I have never seen Alex’s mastery at a major tournament.

Del Piero – false hope or national savior?

I’m happy to be proved wrong. But I sense ADP is false hope. Donadoni’s inexperience is being preyed on by an Italian media forcing their opinions on a manager who’s fast become both shaken and stirred.

Given the depth of playing stocks available in our squad it will be interesting to see which talent does not get this shot against the Romanians.

 

Italia vs Romania – who’s in, who’s out

 

After reading various websites (articles, blogs, quotes) I’ve tried to work out who (from the loss against the Dutch) in the Italian squad are the Barack Obamas (i.e. should stay in the contest) and who are the Hilary Clintons (bushed out).

Barack Obamas (should stay)

Buffon, Zambrotta, Grosso, Pirlo, Toni, Cassano, Del Piero

Hilary Clintons (Roberto please don’t ever think of selecting these guys again)

Materazzi, Barzaghli, Ambrosini, Gattuso,

People seem to feel neutral about these players (the Switzerlands, who lets face it are out)

Panucci, Camaronesi, Di Natale

From the players who didn’t play against Holland:

Chiellini and di Rossi are popular choices

Perrotta neutral, and there seems to be reserved confidence around giving Aquilani a game.

To the fan, everyone would love to see Cannavaro playing (if only the Pope was still Italian).

 

 

 

 

Captain o’ Captain

 

Rumours suggest Del Piero will be skipper.

Not only will Alex start against the Romanians but he will also be wearing the armband.